- Q3 2018-19 Net Financing of £3.3 billion
- 2018-19 Net Financing full year forecast: £11.0 billion
Today’s Spring Statement confirms that NS&I’s Net Financing forecast for 2018-19 is £11.0 billion. This is in line with its revised Net Financing target of £9 billion (within a range of £6 billion to £12 billion) set out in the Budget on 29 October 2018. The end-year forecast reflects higher than expected Net Financing as a result of changing conditions in the savings market.
NS&I forecasts a Value Indicator return of circa £6 million in 2018-19. This is lower than the target of £125 million of value for the taxpayer and above the lower limit of £0 million(excluding Investment Guaranteed Growth Bonds and 65+ Bonds). The lower limit is important because it allows NS&I to continue to balance the interests of its savers, taxpayers and the stability of the broader financial services sector through a period when gilt yields have remained low compared with historic levels.
In the 2019 Spring Statement, it has also been confirmed that NS&I will have a 2019-20 Net Financing target of £11 billion, within a range of £8 billion to £14 billion.
Provisional Q3 2018-19 results (1 October – 31 December 2018)
|Quarter / year||Gross inflows||C&AIP*||Gross outflows||Net Financing||Total stock||Value Indicator|
|Q3 2018-19 (unaudited)||8.9||0.7||6.3||3.3||165.6||0.01****|
|Q2 2018-19 (unaudited)||8.3||0.6||6.4||2.5||162.3||0.01****|
|Q1 2018-19 (unaudited)||11.0||0.7||8.6||3.1||159.8||0.04***|
All figures are in £ billion and are subject to rounding. Q3 2018-19 figures are provisional, unaudited and subject to change due to transaction processing (evidence of identity) adjustments, cancellations and any accounting adjustments.
*C&AIP is capitalised and accrued interest and prizes earned.
**Excluding 65+ Bonds.
***Excluding 65+ Bonds and Investment Guaranteed Growth Bonds.
****Excluding Investment Guaranteed Growth Bonds.
NS&I reports quarterly on gross inflows and outflows, Net Financing and total stock, releasing unaudited figures. It publishes its Annual Report and audited accounts each financial year.
Notes to Editors
1. NS&I is one of the largest savings organisations in the UK, offering a range of savings and investments to 25 million customers. All products offer 100% capital security, because NS&I is backed by HM Treasury.
2. Net Financing – the measure of the net change of NS&I funds, meaning total inflows from deposits, retention of maturing monies and capitalised and accrued interest, less the total outflows from withdrawals and interest or Premium Bonds prize draw payments. A positive Net Financing figure represents a positive contribution to government financing.
3. NS&I’s original Net Financing target for 2018-19 – set at the Spring Statement in March 2018 – was £6 billion, in a range of £3 billion to £9 billion. In the Budget on 29 October 2018, NS&I’s Net Financing target for 2018-19 was revised to £9 billion (in a range of £3 billion either side of this, from £6 billion to £12 billion). The change to the target reflected higher than expected Net Financing being delivered in the first half of 2018-19, as a result of changing conditions in the savings market.
4. Value Indicator – an indication of our cost-effectiveness in raising finance for the Government. In general, it compares the total cost of delivering Net Financing and servicing existing customers’ deposits with how much it would cost the Government to
raise funds through the wholesale market via equivalent gilts. Some adjustments and assumptions are made to the calculation, including in identifying and applying an equivalent gilt, in response to specific NS&I product issues. The Value Indicator methodology is agreed with HM Treasury and is reviewed and revised periodically, with their agreement, to support a long-term approach to product strategy.
5. 65+ Bonds are not included in the Value Indicator. As they were a specific Budget measure, the cost for delivering them was set out in the 2014 and 2015 Budget scorecards. Investment Guaranteed Growth Bonds were a specific measure announced at the 2016 Autumn Statement and are not included in the Value Indicator.